The International Monetary Fund says Antigua and Barbuda remains exposed to global shocks even after a year in which growth held up and inflation eased sharply.
In its latest Article IV assessment, the IMF pointed to the country's dependence on tourism, imports and foreign investment as the main reason outside events can quickly feed into domestic prices, business confidence and household costs. It specifically flagged the risk that conflict-linked disruption in the Middle East could lift fuel and shipping bills.
Growth, but with clear downside risks
The fund estimated that the economy grew by 3% in 2025, supported largely by construction activity. Inflation, meanwhile, was said to have cooled to 1.4% after running above 6% the year before. Those are helpful numbers for policymakers, but the IMF said they do not remove the country's exposure to imported instability.
If energy prices climb, shipping lanes tighten or major source markets slow, Antigua and Barbuda could feel the effect through tourism demand, import costs and wider business activity. The reference to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz is especially relevant for a country that depends on smooth trade flows to keep prices and supply chains stable.
The brighter side of the report is that stronger tourism demand, added connectivity and productivity reforms could support the outlook if global conditions steady. For now, though, the IMF's message is that local gains can still be knocked sideways by events far beyond Antigua and Barbuda's control.
